When Alberta’s Premier, the Hon. Danielle Smith, gave her election victory speech; she made it clear that she believed that she could protect Alberta’s Oil and Gas industry from the Global Energy Transition.
Or as she put it, “We need to come together no matter how we voted to stand shoulder to shoulder against soon-to-be-announced Ottawa policies that would significantly harm our provincial economy”.
In that particular part of the speech, Premier Smith was indicating that she would fight Ottawa’s goal of shifting to a net-zero electricity system in 2035. Or put differently, with just over a decade of time – 12 years, if you want to be specific-, Danielle Smith doesn’t feel that Alberta can transition its electrical energy grid off of its use of natural gas.
Here is the thing, when you look at the rest of the world, you will find that other jurisdictions are successfully working toward this goal. In 2022, 13% of Alberta’s electrical power came from wind and solar sources. (Once powered primarily by coal, Alberta now gets more electricity from renewables, by Robson Fletcher, CBC News, Posted & Last Updated: Mar 09, 2023) While that has grown from 2015 ( back then it was 7%); that number is low by international comparison. Germany, as an example, generates 37% of their electrical energy using wind and solar. On the other hand, 43.8% of Denmark’s power comes from one source: wind power. Given that Denmark has more people than Alberta – Denmark is almost 6 million strong; while Alberta has a population of just over 4.6 million residents – and given that Alberta has large untapped solar and wind resources, Alberta could shift more of our electrical power resources to renewables.
Premier Smith argues that this is not possible because of technological, economic or feasibility constraints but that is not accurate, correct or precise. When Russia invaded Ukraine, much of Western and Central Europe quickly realised that if they wanted to stand with Ukraine; they (Western and Central Europe) would have to find a new energy supplier. When the European Union sanctioned Russia, its constituent members said that they didn’t need Russian Oil and Gas. When Russia stopped trading with Western and Central Europe, Russia was saying that they were willing to hurt their own economy in order to make a point. Either way, one thing happened: Western and Central Europe had to find new energy suppliers.
One of the simple things that Western and Central Europe did was switch to new green technologies. Poland, famously, stopped importing Russian Coal to heat their houses and switched to heat pumps. Heat pumps are awesome because they act as furnaces in the winter and air conditioning systems in the summer. In other parts of Europe, the move to electrification of the transportation system was accelerated. All of this made a difference and it shows that embracing decarbonization, our energy transition, doesn’t have to have an economic cost.
In Alberta, we know this. In 2015, the Notley Government indicated that Alberta’s electrical system would not use coal by 2030. In 2015, 50% of the electrical power produced in Alberta came from burning coal. Critics of the Notley Government said that this would bring an end to Alberta’s economic might. Yet, when the Kenney Government was elected, they didn’t reverse that policy goal. Neither did the Administration of Danielle Smith. Funny thing is that Alberta, by the end of 2023, is projected to have a coal free electrical grid. So, in less than 15 years, we made an energy transition: we went from burning coal in the majority of all electrical plants to burning none at all. Why can’t we do it again?
Transitioning our domestic electrical power grid doesn’t mean that we have to stop exporting coal or natural gas, bitumen or oil. Norway is the best example of that. By 2025, a Norwegian living in Norway will not be able to buy a new internal combustion powered car. According to Time magazine: “Almost sixty-five percent of new passenger cars sold in Norway in 2021 were electric; in addition, 22% were plug-in hybrids. Put differently, only 14% of new cars were sold without a plug”. Yet, Norway still has a thriving export-oriented Oil and Gas Industry.
Transitioning means starting now for the change that is coming. After all, other entities are doing the same. Companies like UPS, Amazon, Bell Canada, Telus, Pepsico are already transitioning their logistics operations to a green, electric future. Walmart and Costco famously have solar installations and bought electric rigs to meet their decarbonization goals. Most of these entities are tracking their goals based on a 2030 timeline. Most of them are determined to meet those goals.
The end result is a simple one: companies, governments and other entities will transition in a way that will hurt oil and natural gas. That in the end will hurt Alberta because our economy is driven by the production of bitumen, coal, oil and natural gas. Transition is coming.
Given that Alberta has the people, all Alberta needs is the capital to make this leap, to make a successful transition. We need the capital because most large manufacturers are now looking to set up shop in jurisdictions that have “green grids” or plans to turn their electrical grid into a “green grid”. As a result, we have an opportunity to change. If we witness the evidence before us and see what is happening, Alberta has an opportunity to anticipate, or at least mitigate, the change that is coming for us. Alberta can still provide an answer for the least of us; while embracing the benefit for the plurality of us. Alberta can still come up with an answer which will benefit the vast majority of residents of Alberta without harming our various minorities, our various few or even an individual. We can make a difference if we recognize what is and what can be. The only question is will the UCP, will the Legislature in Edmonton, will the Hon. Danielle Smith acknowledge the change that is coming or will they let the change wash over all of us; unprepared us? This is the question that will only be answered in time; but I am already afraid. I am afraid that Alberta’s political elite will not recognize reality and this will leave us poorer, angrier and less trusting.
52 Ideas 