It is easy to see the countries that have pushed towards electrification of their private car fleet. Norway is an easy stand out. By 2025, Norway will only register new low- or zero- emission (ZEV) cars. This means that, for the most part, only hybrids (HEV), plug-in hybrids (PHEV), hydrogen (FCEV) and battery-electric vehicles (BEV) will be the only cars which will be registered for use in Norway. Accordingly, it should not be a surprise that most new cars sold in Norway today are HEV, PHEV, FCEV or BEV cars. However, what surprises those who aren’t Norwegian is simple: as of July 2024, more than 85% of those new Norwegian cars are powered by a battery-electric (BEV) power train.
It is harder to see the move away from diesel, petrol, compressed natural gas (CNG) and gasoline powered cars in North America; but, it is happening. Internal combustion (ICE) vehicles in most of the rest of the world are being phased out and politicians in the province of Alberta should not try to continue to be ostriches. Don’t believe me, look at the Transport for London (TfL). Similar to Calgary Transit or the Toronto Transit Commission, TfL is the public bus operator in London and it is responsible for most buses found in London.
Since 2021, TfL has been transitioning. Now, let me be clear, TfL is buying buses. TfL is buying a lot of buses. However, what they have not done since 2021 is purchase a bus with an internal combustion engine (ICE). On the other hand, TfL has bought lots of BEV buses from BYD, a Chinese vehicle manufacturing firm. TfL has bought so many buses that more than 50% of their fleet are not ICE buses. More than 40% of their fleet are lower emission HEV buses. However, what is most interesting is that more than 12% of TfL buses are battery powered; and that number is planned to increase. For, by 2034, TfL’s fleet will have a zero emission (ZEV) fleet.
Now, for those who might say that TfL will choose to use Hydrogen buses because that is the obvious choice, you would be both mistaken and surprised. Out of the more than 8,500 buses that TfL has, only 20 of them are hydrogen fuel cell (FCEV) powered. That has not really changed since 2004, when FCEV buses first came into the TfL bus fleet. Experience has taught the TfL that BEV buses are the ones that work for them. They have more than 1,000 of them now; and TfL will continue to buy them until their entire fleet is replaced in 2034.
Now, 2034 is a goal; and to be honest, it is an outside goal for TfL. Or put in a different way, there is enough argument within London and TfL that reports have been written to see if the 2030 goal could be pushed up. The easy answer is it can be. The only reason why this will not happen is simple: no level of the British Government really wants to fund it. So, London and TfL are stuck with their 2034 goal; and, that should terrify every politician in Alberta.
The 2034 goal should terrify every politician in Alberta because London is showing the rest of the world that transition is possible. London is ahead of many major Western cities in their transition; and, as a result, London has reaped some wins. As an example, London now has one of the lowest carbon dioxide rates of emissions per passenger kilometre in the Western World. London’s rate of emission is lower than Vancouver, New York or Paris. They are doing this without hydrogen fuel cells. They are transitioning with existing technology. So, London is not waiting for the future because the future is here.
So when the Hon. Pierre Poilievre says that this change is unachievable, he is wrong. London is accomplishing it. When Premier Danielle Smith and Premier Moe mock the notion of an all-electric vehicle fleet, they are diminishing themselves because London is showing that it is possible. When the small “c”- Canadian Conservative movement says that the technology for the transition does not exist; they are only demonstrating their desire to be ostriches because London is showing that the technology exists. One only needs to have the will to implement it.
Now, this change in itself is not small; but the consequences are existential when it comes to Alberta’s fossil fuel industry. For, in the next year, Norway and London will provide two different models for transitioning toward a new non-fossil fuel ground transportation network. As we have seen the development and sale of BEV powered light and heavy duty trucks, delivery vans and tractor- trailers (also known as 18 wheelers or big rigs) by Nikola, BYD, Volvo Trucks, Tesla, Mercedes-Benz, Freightliner and BYD, it is easy to see that fossil fuel use in the transportation sector will decrease. If buses, cars, rigs, trucks and vans decrease their need for compressed natural gas, gas, diesel, petrol, oils and their derivative products, Alberta will have a significant problem because in the Western World oil is primarily used by the transportation sector. It means that Alberta politicians need to change direction.
We can see this in the data from our own country and others. According to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, 65% of Canada’s oil consumption comes from the transportation sector. Given that Canada’s transportation sector will burn almost all of that oil, it is easy for Governments in Canada to reduce our emissions by reducing our oil use. This case is further bolstered when looking at reports from Statistics Canada because StatsCan notes that terrestrial transportation (including but not limited to bus, cars, motorcycles, trucks (heavy and light duty)) made up the majority of the emissions in the transportation sector. Accordingly, various Canadian governments are requiring the transition to ZEV vehicles as an easy way to drop our own GHG emissions.
The same thing is true when looking at the US. Their best resource – the US Energy Information Agency – indicates that 67% of America’s oil consumption comes from the transportation sector. If this is true in most of the Western World, Alberta’s oil industry will see an ever decreasing demand for the very product that Alberta supplies. This is why Alberta’s politicians should be scared.
Just think about it. California – who has an economy which is almost twice the size of the Canadian economy – has a simple goal: they want to ensure that “100 percent of sales of new passenger vehicles and trucks in the state be zero-emission by 2035, all drayage trucks be zero-emission by 2035, off-road vehicles and equipment be zero-emission by 2035 where feasible, and all other vehicles in the medium- and heavy-duty fleet transition to zero-emission by 2045”. If California achieves that goal, Alberta will see a reduction in sale of bitumen, diesel, natural gas, gasoline and oil.
However, California is not alone. More than 10 other states have adopted California’s regulations and that could be as much as 40% of the North American vehicle market by 2027. Quebec is not so different because it hopes to have 2 million electric cars on its roads by 2030; so that by 2035, 100% of all new vehicle sales in the province of Quebec are zero emission (ZEV) cars.
And then there is the European Union (EU) and its own 2035 goal. The EU has already indicated that they want to be the “first major region worldwide to introduce a 100% CO2 emission reduction target” for all newly registered cars and vans. They have passed legislation to make it happen. So as the EU meets their goal, Alberta will see a reduction in the sale of bitumen, diesel, natural gas, gasoline and oil.
However, it doesn’t end there. The UK will follow suit in 2035; while Chinese, Korean and Japanese car companies are supplying various low or no emissions variants to their own markets and the rest of the world. BC has its own legislation and goals; while Australia – for the first time – is beginning to mandate emission standards. This means more ZEV cars are going to come to market and experience tells us that those will likely be BEV, battery transmission powered vehicles.
With all of this transition, it should not be a surprise that the use of oil in the transportation industry is going to decrease dramatically over the next decade. As a result, Alberta politicians need to take note.
Alberta politicians need to be honest with Albertans and recognize the change that is on its way. The evidence indicates that change is on the way. The facts indicate that it will be a significant and unrelenting wave. The Alberta Legislature should be having conversations about the inevitable drop in fossil fuel use and what a new shape a new future should take. This action is the type of thing that will help every Albertan – old and new; majority and minority; Indigenous and Settler; rich, poor and powerful – all of us are in the same boat: all of us need to make the change.
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